Well I almost choked on my Crunchy Nut Cornflakes this morning; the Tories had pulled into a 10-point lead in the latest ICM opinion poll. Closer examination of the statistics showed that the actual lead is nearer 14%, but the pollsters revised the figures downwards by 4% to take into account the shy Labour voters who are just too embarrassed to admit to supporting the government.
But are we really so far ahead?? I don't believe so. It is obvious that we are more popular than Labour; Pol Pot was more popular at the UN than Blair and Prescott et al are with the country at the moment. The reason why Labour won't be too pissed with this news is that we are in classic mid term blues territory. Governments have always been used to seeing the opposition surge into mid term leads, only for the electorate to come crawling back to them at election time. The same is true here.
The first two Blair terms were freaks of political nature. Not only was this country totally hoodwinked by the most incompetent and immoral bunch of charlatans British politics has ever seen but the opinion polls continued to show big leads for the Labour government. We are now settling down into more reliable political territory.
The big question is how long this lead can be sustained. If we see a similar lead running beyond the next local elections in May it is entirely likely that Davey C could actually be onto something good. Until then the jury is still definately out!
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2 comments:
Every time a poll is mentioned on Conservative Home, there is a bun fight. Cameron supporters claim he walks on water, detractors claim we should be 90% ahead.
The only really interesting question is the sustainability (I sound like a Lib Dem) of the lead. As you say, the longer this continues, the more important it becomes.
Good lord, man, don't insult yourself like that! The Lib Dems are back down to a miserable 16%... just where their ancient, insipid geriatric of a leader deserves to be.
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